Sierra Vista, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

574
FXUS65 KTWC 152105
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
205 PM MST Thu May 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures through early next week will generally
be near normal. Breezy to windy conditions returning over the
upcoming weekend as a system passes through bringing elevated fire
weather conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Nearly zonal flow over the Southeastern Arizona
today based on the latest water vapor imagery. Temperatures will
hover around near normal for next two days before another weather
system drops by this weekend.

Ensemble models show this weekend to be breezy to windy condition
with a two step sequence. Saturday, a short wave trough will be
passing over the eastern portion of region (Cochise, Graham, and
Greenlee Counties) to bring strong breezes in the afternoon to
early evening. Right behind the short wave will be longer trough
or a low pressure center that will be located to our north. This
second feature will bring widespread breezy conditions areawide
and windy conditions for the eastern counties on Sunday. This
weather system will be dry and will result in near critical to
critical fire weather conditions this weekend. This will also
raise dust concerns along the major thoroughfares of Southeast
Arizona.

The weather system will slow for the exit by Monday and will
likely to continue to bring those strong winds again, especially
in the southeastern portion of the county warning area.

This system will delaying our anticipation for the approaching summer
heat. Mondays temperatures will be 9-12 degrees below normal.
Most of the deserts, including Tucson, will be in the mid 80s to
mid 70s. With any brief cool down, we will have a rapid warm up.
A ridge of high pressure will start to build and bringing
Southeast Arizona into our heat season by the middle of next week
and raising our HeatRisk. Even more to note when we are not fully
acclimated this heat yet. Best to start preparing for the heat
late next week and into the holiday weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 17/00Z.
SKC for most of the forecast period with high clouds at or around
20k ft AGL moving from the south and over the terminals south and
east of KTUS after 16/18Z till the rest of the period. This
afternoon SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 8-13 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.
By 16/03Z, terrain driven winds less than 10 kts through the
overnight period. After 16/18Z, SFC wind SWLY/WLY at 12-18 kts
with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Terminals east of KTUS will
experience the stronger winds. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be near normal this
Friday and Saturday. Typical afternoon breezes today and Friday
for much of southeast Arizona, with breezy conditions persisting
across Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties where 20-foot wind
speeds will be around 15 mph and gusts up to 25-30 mph during the
mid/late afternoon hours. Increasing southwest winds are expected
over the upcoming weekend as another storm system moves to our
north. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are
expected this weekend and into Monday. Sunday looking to be the
windiest of the period. Monday`s winds will lower in speeds and
focused on the eastern areas, Cochise County to the Gila River
Valley. Temperatures will be 2-4 degrees below normal Sunday,
lowering to 9-12 degrees below normal next Monday, warming to well
above normal levels by the middle of next week.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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